Kashmir is a Moslem majority state, but had a Hindu Raja who wanted to remain independent, but an invasion by Pakistan backed tribal's with active support from the Pakistan Army put paid to his hopes and he had no choice but to accede to India.Thus Kashmir became a part of the Indian union. The then Prime Minister JL Nehru in his wisdom made two commitments which in the long run turned out to be blunders.
a) Firstly he agreed for a plebiscite in Kashmir to ascertain the wishes of the people
b) He in his mistaken zeal to protect Kashmiri identity enactedArticle 370 of the constitution that conferred special rights to the people of Kashmir.
Both the above promises were tactical and strategic blunders for which the present rulers have to suffer. The genesis of the present Kashmir problem can be traced to these two fundamental mistakes which are now like a fatal anchor around the Indian State.
In addition General Zia up Haq when he was president of Pakistan formulated a plan to infiltrate the valley with armed Mujahedeen (freedom fighters) who would incite the local population as well as attack units of the Indian army. Thus the seeds were sown for a full fledged confrontation with the Indian state.
The period of the last 63 years and in particular the period during the last decade has shownthat the Indian government is strangely lacking in will power to tackle the heady cocktail of Islam and terrorism. The approach to the Kashmir problem is piece meal and the military as well as the paramilitary forces are generally reined in and are not able to function at optimum level. Also international pressure from Muslim countries has also taken its toll, resulting in a lack of resolve to fight the terrorists.
There is no doubt that at least 50-60% of the population may be with India, but that support has to be garnered. This is not happening as a fringe minority is calling the shots. The agitation this year is severe and 19 deaths have already taken place and the Indian government is on the defensive. Worse there seems no resolve to take hard decisions.
The Kashmir problem will fester for years unless and until the Indian government shows resolve in teaching Pakistan and the terrorist that the price for this activity is high. In fact the aim should be heavy attrition to make the mujahedeen realize that it is not cost effective to fight India. But will that happen? Your guess is as good as mine.