Pakistan has been in existence for 64 years. During this period, the Pakistan army has effectively ruled the country for the greater part. Starting with the first military coup by Genral Mohammad Ayub Khan, a sucession of generals have ruled Pakistan. The prominent ones are Musharaff and Zia ul Haq. But during the same period the Pakistan army lost a succession of wars as well as half the country with the creation of Bangladesh. Thus in a nutshell the military rule has not been benefcial for Pakistan.
No Civil Leadership
The civil leadership has however been poor and after the demise ofMohammad Ali Jinnah, no civil leader has emerged to lead the nation. Even now the leadership headed by Ali Zardari and the People party have no charisma to lead the nation. Zardari is the same man who was known as Mr. ten percent when his wife Benazir Bhutto was prime minister of Pakistan.
Pakistan Army failures
But certain events during the last year has shown the Pakistan army in poor light. Firstly the Taliban have mounted an offensive in Pakistan and secondly the US army and NATO have brought home the fact that the army is not all that omnipotent and is in a way incompetent. The lop side priorities of the army in getting ready only for India and the Eastern border came home to roost when
Thus General Kayani , the Chief of the Pakistan army does not have the aura of invincibility to strike and take over Pakistan. Though he would like to and may have considered the option, but the scenario is changed and the West led by the USA also will not accept a militray dictatorship in Pakistan. So many dictators have fallen in the dust bin in the last year that Kayani knows that any military coup is dangerous and could very well fail as well as popular support is lacking for the army rule. Kayani knows that the age of military dictators is evaporating very fast.
The Pakistan supreme court which earlier justified military rule on the 'Doctrine of Necessity' is unlikely to bail out the military this time. Hence the chance that the army under Kayani will launch a military coup at present is rather remote. Perhaps he will be better of running the government from behind the scene as he is doing now.